Jet Fuel Demand Falters: Chinese Travel, US Policies, and Efficient Planes Weigh

Intermediate | July 13, 2025

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Global Demand Slowdown

Forecasts Fall Short

Global jet fuel demand is facing a significant slowdown in its recovery, often referred to as the global jet fuel demand slowdown, and experts predict it will remain below pre-pandemic levels through 2025 and 2026. , and experts predict it will remain below pre-pandemic levels through 2025 and 2026. This unexpected faltering is due to a combination of factors that define the current global jet fuel demand slowdown: fewer overseas trips by Chinese citizens, strict immigration rules in the United States, and the growing number of fuel-efficient planes in the sky. : fewer overseas trips by Chinese citizens, strict immigration rules in the United States, and the growing number of fuel-efficient planes in the sky. This softer demand for jet fuel is also contributing to lower overall oil demand and, consequently, weaker oil prices worldwide.

IEA’s View on the Global Jet Fuel Demand Slowdown

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently changed its forecast, now expecting jet fuel consumption to reach 8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2027. This is a delay from earlier predictions and means it will take longer to surpass the 2019 level of 7.9 million bpd. The IEA also projects a slowdown in demand growth, from 5.6% last year to just 1.32% in 2025 and 1.29% in 2026.

Key Factors Behind the Decline

Reduced Chinese Travel

One major reason for the slowdown is the reduced overseas travel by Chinese citizens. Tight consumer spending in China has limited long-haul flights from Asia. While there are some signs of a rebound in Chinese outbound travel for the 2025 summer, especially for first-time international travelers, the overall impact on long-distance aviation fuel use remains negative. This suggests that even as some travel resumes, it’s not enough to fully boost demand.

Impact of US Policies

In the United States, strict immigration policies, particularly those put in place by former President Donald Trump, are making fewer tourists visit. This is expected to lead to a 16.3% drop in US arrivals for 2025. On top of immigration, Trump’s changing plans for tariffs have created a lot of uncertainty for US airlines. Several major carriers have even withdrawn their financial guidance for 2025, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global economic growth outlook for 2025-2026 because of the ongoing trade war.

More Fuel-Efficient Aircraft

Adding to these challenges is the improved fuel efficiency of modern aircraft. Newer airplanes are designed to use much less fuel. For example, popular models like the A320neo and Boeing’s 737 Max are already cutting jet fuel use by about 15%. As more of these efficient planes enter service, they naturally reduce the demand for fuel, even if the number of flights stays the same.

Uncertainty Around Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)

Looking ahead, the future of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in the US also faces uncertainty. The current administration has paused legislation that supported SAF with tax credits and investment, which aimed for 3 billion gallons by 2030. Despite this, SAF is still expected to gain market share in 2025, with many airlines committing to purchase large amounts by 2030, even though it remains more expensive than traditional jet fuel.

Vocabulary

faltering (adjective): Losing strength or momentum; becoming unsteady.
- Example: “The company’s sales started faltering after the new competitor arrived.”
curtailed (verb): Reduced in extent or quantity; imposed a restriction on.
- Example: “Our vacation plans were curtailed by unexpected expenses.”
stringent (adjective): Strict, precise, and exacting.
- Example: “The new safety regulations are very stringent.”
deterring (verb): Discouraging someone from doing something by instilling doubt or fear.
- Example: “Bad weather is deterring many people from traveling this weekend.”
uncertainty (noun): The state of being uncertain; doubt.
- Example: “There is a lot of uncertainty about the future of the economy.”
escalating (verb): Increasing rapidly in intensity or magnitude.
- Example: “The cost of living is escalating quickly.”
consequently (adverb): As a result; as a consequence.
- Example: “She studied hard for the exam; consequently, she got an A.”
revised (verb): Re-examined and made corrections or alterations to.
- Example: “The author revised his manuscript based on the editor’s feedback.”
conventional (adjective): Based on or in accordance with what is generally accepted or customary; traditional.
- Example: “Many people still prefer conventional cars over electric vehicles.”
consumption (noun): The action of using up a resource.
- Example: “Water consumption increases significantly during the summer months.”

Discussion Questions (About the Article)

What are the main reasons given for the slowdown in global jet fuel demand recovery?
How have Chinese consumer spending and US immigration policies affected air travel?
What role do new, more fuel-efficient aircraft play in the current jet fuel demand situation?
According to the IEA, when is jet fuel consumption now expected to reach pre-pandemic levels?
What is the current outlook for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in the US?

Discussion Questions (About the Topic)

How might changes in global travel trends impact the environment?
Do you think governments should encourage or discourage international travel, and why?
How important is it for airlines to invest in more fuel-efficient aircraft, and what are the benefits?
What are some ways to make air travel more sustainable in the future?
How do global economic conditions affect industries like aviation and fuel?

Related Idiom

Ground to a halt

Meaning: To stop completely.
Example: “Due to the severe weather, all flights at the airport ground to a halt.”

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This article was inspired by: Reuters | July 9, 2025| July 9, 2025