South Korea’s Spy Agency Sees Chance of US–North Korea Summit

Advanced | November 21, 2025

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A Possible Breakthrough: Seoul’s Spy Agency Predicts US–North Korea Summit

The US-North Korea summit possibility has become a major focus for Seoul and Washington. On November 4, 2025 4, 2025**, the National Intelligence Service (NIS) of South Korea told lawmakers that there is a *high possibility* of a summit between the Kim Jong Un‑led North Korea and the Donald Trump administration, likely after March 2026, following upcoming joint US‑South Korea military drills.

Lawmakers indicated that Kim appears willing to talk if Washington drops its pre‑condition of full denuclearisation — a major shift, albeit one that still leaves important details unresolved. Meanwhile, President Trump reiterated his openness to meeting Kim, saying “we’ll, at some point in the not‑too‑distant future, meet with North Korea.”

Why the US-North Korea summit possibility Matters

Summits between Kim and Trump previously occurred in 2018 and 2019, but failed to yield lasting diplomatic progress, largely because the US wouldn’t relax denuclearisation demands and North Korea kept expanding its missile and nuclear arsenal.

If a new summit happens next year, this US-North Korea summit possibility could reopen strategic engagement on the Korean Peninsula, it could reopen strategic engagement on the Korean Peninsula — which matters not only regionally but globally, since North Korea remains under heavy international sanctions and its missile programme is a concern for Washington, Seoul and Tokyo alike.

What the Intelligence Sees: Timing and Conditions

According to the NIS briefing, a key trigger for the summit could be the US–South Korea joint military exercises scheduled for March 2026. Once those are concluded, North Korea may be ready to make overtures.

North Korea, per the report, is monitoring how the US dispatches working‑level officials responsible for North Korean affairs and waiting to see how Washington frames its approach.

Another intriguing detail: the NIS lawmaker mentioned that Kim’s daughter, Kim Ju Ae, is being positioned as a likely successor and has recently kept a low public profile.

What’s Next: Opportunities and Risks

If a summit takes place, expect intensive diplomatic activity: preparatory talks, possibly symbolic gestures, public messaging shifts from both Seoul and Washington. The summit could open avenues for negotiations on sanctions, security guarantees, even economic engagement — though full denuclearisation remains a distant and contested goal.

On the other hand, the risks are real: the last time diplomacy failed to deliver meaningful results, this time could see stalling, back‑tracking, or even a renewed military escalation if talks collapse. For businesses, investors, and policy‑makers, the moment is being watched closely — because stability (or instability) on the Korean Peninsula affects supply‑chains, regional security, and global markets.

Vocabulary

Summit (noun) – a high‑level meeting between leaders or heads of state.
Example: “The summit between Kim and Trump in 2018 showed promise but no lasting agreement followed.”
Pre‑condition (noun) – a condition that must be fulfilled before something else happens.
Example: “North Korea has listed dropping denuclearisation demands as a pre‑condition for talks.”
Overture (noun) – an initial move toward negotiation or action.
Example: “The US offered an overture by suggesting a meeting without pre‑conditions.”
Denuclearisation (noun) – the process of removing nuclear weapons or capabilities from a country.
Example: “Denuclearisation of North Korea remains one of the hardest issues in diplomacy.”
Parliamentary audit (noun) – a formal review carried out by a legislative body.
Example: “During the parliamentary audit, the NIS revealed its assessment of a future summit.”
Low‑profile (adjective) – avoiding public attention or visibility.
Example: “Kim Ju Ae has maintained a low‑profile as she is positioned for future leadership.”
Carry out (phrasal verb) – to execute or perform a task.
Example: “The joint military drills will be carried out in March 2026.”
Trigger (verb) – to cause something to start or happen.
Example: “The conclusion of the military exercises could trigger the summit.”
Contested (adjective) – disputed or challenged.
Example: “The goal of full denuclearisation remains heavily contested.”
Overhaul (noun) – a thorough revision or change.
Example: “A successful summit could lead to an overhaul of sanctions policy.”

Discussion Questions (About the Article)

Why does the NIS believe a summit might happen after March 2026 and not sooner?
What role do military drills play in this diplomatic timeline?
Why is North Korea insisting on dropping denuclearisation demands before talks?
What risks might arise if the summit fails to deliver results?
How does the mention of Kim Ju Ae’s low‑profile involvement reflect on North Korean strategy?

Discussion Questions (About the Topic)

Should a country like North Korea be given incentives (e.g., sanctions relief) before making concrete changes in its nuclear programme? Why or why not?
How should the US balance diplomacy with deterrence when dealing with a country like North Korea?
From a free‑market, individual‑liberty perspective: how do international summits and state‑led diplomacy affect business and economic freedom?
What could be the consequences for global supply‑chains if instability returns to the Korean Peninsula?
In your opinion, how credible are high‑level summits as a way to solve long‑term security problems compared to bottom‑up, incremental approaches?

Related Idiom

“Testing the waters” – trying something out to see how it works before full commitment.
Example: “North Korea’s willingness to engage with the US without full denuclearisation shows it might be testing the waters.”

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This article was inspired by: Reuters

South Korea’s Spy Agency Sees Chance of US–North Korea Summit